About Polymarkkina
Polymarkkina provides daily summaries, interactive charts, and analytical tools for prediction market data. We aggregate data from multiple platforms to give you a comprehensive view of what markets are saying about the future.
Data Sources
Polymarket
Largest crypto-based prediction market. Real-money trading on events.
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated event contracts platform for US users.
Metaculus
Community forecasting platform focused on calibration and accuracy.
Manifold
Play-money prediction market with a wide range of user-created questions.
PredictIt
Political prediction market operating under a CFTC no-action letter.
Methodology
Cross-platform matching: We match markets across platforms using a combination of NLP similarity matching and manual curation to ensure we're comparing equivalent questions.
Calibration: We compute calibration scores by bucketing resolved markets by their predicted probability and comparing against actual resolution rates. Brier scores provide a single-number accuracy metric per platform.
Volume surge detection: Surges are identified by comparing a market's current 24h volume against its 30-day average daily volume.
Sentiment index: Category-level sentiment is computed as the average daily probability shift across all active markets in that category.
Update Frequency
Market probabilities, volumes, and deltas: every 5 minutes
Category heatmap: every 15 minutes
Calibration data: daily
Featured spotlight: hourly (editorially curated)